The National Popular Vote Plan

As we'll discuss this week, the Electoral College system of selecting a President gives rise to the possibility that occurred in 2000: The candidate who wins the most popular vote nevertheless loses in the Electoral College. This has generated new interest in reforming or doing away with the Electoral College. However, because this requires a Constitutional amendment (2/3 of each house of Congress plus 3/4 of all states), such a reform is not likely.

However, a recent proposal, the National Popular Vote Plan, has gained momentum. Under this plan, states would enter into an agreement under which each state would agree to give all of its electoral votes to the candidate who gets the most popular votes, even if that candidate did not carry that particular state. Once enough states signed on to this plan to guarantee they could deliver a majority of electoral votes, this would ensure that the popular vote winner would also win the Electoral College vote, and thus be elected President.

Legislation to adopt this plan in California passed the legislature this year. The author of the bill gave these reasons for it:

With the current winner-take-all allocation of each state's electoral votes, candidates are forced to focus exclusively on a small number of 'battleground' states. Because California hasn't been one of the battleground states, we have largely been ignored by recent Presidential campaigns. Under the current system of electing the President, as long as California remains a solidly Democratic state, there is no reason for Presidential candidates of any party to pay attention to California voters. California will continue to be seen by Presidential candidates as nothing more than an ATM for their campaign coffers. AB 2948 enacts an interstate compact in which the member states agree to award their electoral votes to the Presidential ticket that receives the most popular votes nationwide. The compact would take effect only when the plan was enacted by states collectively possessing a majority of the electoral votes - thereby guaranteeing that the candidate receiving the most popular votes nationwide wins enough electoral votes to become President.

However, the bill was vetoed by the Governor. In his veto message, the Governor said:

I believe strongly in democracy and in honoring the will of the people. While this bill honors the will of the majority of people voting for the office of President of the United States across the country, it disregards the will of a majority of Californians.

I appreciate the intent of this measure to make California more relevant in the presidential campaign, but I cannot support doing it by giving all our electoral votes to the candidate that a majority of Californians did not support.

This is counter to the tradition of our great nation which honor states rights and the unique pride and identity of each state.

What do you think of this proposal? What are some of its ramifications? Is it a good idea or not?

Revised Class Schedule

In looking at the existing class schedule, I realized that I skipped a week. I think this was because I used my Spring schedule as a model, and forgot there was no fall break. Here is the correct class schedule for the rest of the year. Note that this means that the dates some of you are scheduled to do class presentations have been changed. I will e-mail you a revised oral presentation schedule. If the change gives anyone heartburn because they built their plans around their presentation date, just e-mail me and we will work something out.

My apologies for this oversight.

REVISED CLASS SCHEDULE

October 17/19: Intro to California Politics (Gerston, Chapters 1-4)[Quiz 3]

October 24/26: Legislative Power (Chapter 11, Gerston Ch. 5)
[Class Presentation Group 6]

Oct 31/Nov 1: The Executive Power (Chapter 12, Gerston Ch. 7)
[Class Presentation Group 7]

November 7/9: The Bureaucracy (Chapter 13)
[Class Presentation Group 8]

November 14/16: California Local Government and Budgetary Policy (Gerston Chapters 8 & 9)[Quiz 4]

November 21: Make-Up; Election Analysis and Predictions
[Class Presentation Group 9]

November 28/30: Policy Issues: Economy, Environment, Welfare, Education (Chapters 15 & 16)[Paper Due November 30]

December 5/7: Foreign and Defense Policy and Course Review (Chapter 17)

Week of Dec. 11: Final Exam

Leading Poll Questions

One of the points made in the text is how the wording of poll questions can influence the outcome of the poll. Here's a particularly egregious example, from an article entitled The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly of Public Opinion Polls, which can be read in its entirety here.

In 2002 the professional golf tour witnessed a political fight which ultimately yielded a hired gun poll that almost exactly resembles a push poll. Chairman and CEO Hootie Johnson of the Augusta Golf Club chose an aggressive counter-campaign to Martha Burk of the National Council of Women's Organizations, who sought to oblige the Masters' Golf Tournament's host club to open its doors to women for the first time. He hired The Polling Company and WomanTrend, a Washington D.C. polling firm chaired by a prominent Republican woman named Kellyanne Fitzpatrick Conway (The Polling Company TM + Biography).

The result was satisfying for CEO Johnson and unsatisfying for Burk. Conway accompanied Johnson at a November 13, 2002 press conference to announce the poll result, which had an 800-person-based sampling error of +/- 3.5%. As portrayed in the official PGA website (Poll shows support for Augusta's right to choose membership - PGATOUR.COM): "When asked whether -- like single-sex colleges, the Junior League, sororities, fraternities and other similar same-sex organizations -- "Augusta National Golf Club has the right to have members of one gender only," 74 percent of respondents agreed. Asked whether Augusta National was "correct in its decision not to give into Martha Burk's demand," 72 percent of the respondents agreed.'" That would appear to wrap the matter up.

But a look at the poll questions is instructive. They are clearly aimed at a push throughout the survey. We get this language in Question 21 (Augusta National poll Part III - PGATOUR.COM):

21. As you may or may not know, Augusta National Golf Club is a private golf club in Augusta, Georgia that does not receive any type of government funding. Each year, the Masters Tournament is held at Augusta National Golf Club. Currently, only men are members.

Martha Burk, the President of the National Council of Women’s Organizations, wrote a letter to the Augusta National Golf Club, saying that the Masters Golf Tournament should not be held at a club that does not have women members. She demanded that the Golf Club review its policy and change it immediately, in time for the tournament scheduled for April 2003.

Do you recall hearing a lot, some, only a little, or nothing about this?

The result is that 51 percent of the sample heard nothing about this. Normally that's a warning to pollsters not to proceed further with questions except under very high cautions. But here, Question 22 proceeds immediately with this stem:

22. And, as you may or may not know, the Chairman of Augusta National Golf Club, William Johnson, responded to Martha Burk by saying that membership to the club is something that is determined by members only, and they would not change their policies just because of Burk’s demand.

And, do you support or oppose the decision by Augusta National Golf Club to keep their membership policy as it is?

The result was net support by 62 percent, opposition by 30 percent, and a volunteered "do not know" from the remainder. Then Question 23:

23. Although currently, there are no women members of the Augusta National Golf Club, the Golf Club does allow women to play on their golf course, and visit the course for the Masters Tournament. In other words, women are welcome to visit the Club and often play golf there as guests.

Knowing this, would you say that you support or oppose the Augusta National Golf Club’s decision to keep their membership policy as it is?

This time we get 60 net support for the status quo and 33 percent opposed. Questions 24 and 25 then sally forth in this fashion:

Please tell me if you agree or disagree with the following statements:

24. “Martha Burk had the right to send a letter to Augusta National Golf Club about their membership policies, but if she really wanted to make some progress on behalf of women, she would have focused her time and resources on something else.” [and]

25. “Martha Burk did not really care if the Augusta National Golf Club began allowing women member, she was more concerned with attracting media attention for herself and her organization.”

The replies to this being satisfactory, the key item 26 comes in:

26. “The Augusta National Golf Club was correct in its decision not to give into Martha Burk’s demand. They should review and change their policies on their own time, and in their own way.”

That got 72 percent to agree to not bending to this awful woman's unreasonable demands against a selfless and public-minded private club that welcomes women golfers with open arms. A little later, Question 29 kept up the drumbeat:

And please tell me if you agree or disagree with the following statement:

29. “Just like single-sex colleges, the Junior League, Boys and Girls Scouts, Texas Women’s Shooting Club, Sororities and Fraternities, and women business organizations, Augusta National Golf Club has the right to have members of one gender only.”

Lo, this produced a full 74 percent sample agreement with some form of defense for the existence of single-gender organizations in America. That was the highest proportion of any of these leading items, and thus was the single one seized by Mr. Johnson for highlighting in his press conference accompanied by this hired-gun poll's principal.

But a rebuke to the "Hootie Poll" soon come from within the golf community itself. The November 14, 2002 issue of PGA Tour's Golf Web carried a piece entitled Is the Augusta National poll misleading? - PGATOUR.COM from GolfWeb Wire Services. Its verdict: "The "Hootie Poll" is a mishmash of loaded statements and biased, leading questions that are unworthy of Johnson or Augusta. It is a poll that is slanted to get the answers they wanted, and in that it succeeded."

Correction on Quiz Date -- It's Thursday, Sept. 28

I seem to be having problems with the upcoming quiz. The last blog entry was incorrect. The quiz is this week, on Thursday, September 28.

Sorry for the confusion.

Chapters Covered in 10/5 Quiz

I made a mistake in the lecture notes on Thursday ... Please note that the quiz next week will be on the following Chapters:

Chapter 14 in Patterson and Chapter 6 in Gerston (on the judiciary)
Chapter 4 in Patterson (on civil liberties)
Chapter 5 in Patterson (on equal rights)

Thank you, and sorry for the confusion.

Class Materials for August 31

Some of you have requested that I circulate the Powerpoint outline before class. I have posted the outlines of both of this week's lectures in the "Class Documents" link.

One of the things we will be discussing tomorrow is the power of the federal government under the "commerce clause" of the U.S. Constitution. I've also put in the Class Documents excerpts from a recent U.S. Supreme Court decision (U.S. v. Morrison) addressing commerce clause issues. It is not a mandatory reading, but I think it will provide you with a much better feel for the commerce clause and its limitations.

Finally, I asked staff to call facilities to see if something can be done about the temperature in the classroom. Hopefully tomorrow it will be cooler.

See you all then.

Alternate Site for Federalist No. 78

If the link in the previous post isn't working, try:

http://www.constitution.org/fed/federa78.htm

Additional Readings for Tuesday, August 29

I am still hoping that the Patterson text will arrive in the bookstore on Monday. Below are additional readings for Tuesday. Clicking on the links will take you to the readings.

A brief overview of the concept of "Separation of Powers": http://www.abanet.org/publiced/lawday/talking/tpseparation.html

Introduction to the Federalist Papers: http://www.let.rug.nl/usa/D/1776-1800/federalist/fed_I.htm

Federalist No. 10
http://www.law.ou.edu/hist/federalist/federalist-10-19/

Federalist No. 51
http://www.constitution.org/fed/federa51.htm

Federalist No. 78, on judicial review:
http://www.let.rug.nl/usa/D/1776-1800/federalist/fed78.htm

The U.S. Constitution -- Read Articles I, II, and III, paying particular attention to Article I, Sections 7 and 8 (powers of Congress), Article II, Section 2 (powers of the President), and Article III, Section 1 and 2 (powers of judicial branch). The constitution is available at this link:

http://www.yale.edu/lawweb/avalon/usconst.htm

Class Presentation Guidelines

CLASS PRESENTATION GUIDELINES

For the class presentation, you must select a specific issue relating to government or politics that has been the subject of media coverage in the prior two to three weeks. You must research the issue by using at least three “traditional” media sources (newspapers, magazines, or radio or television networks, including their on-line versions) and at least two political “blogs” (ideally two blogs taking different positions on the issue). This is to make sure you have several sources of information on the issue.

The class presentation should be brief (3-5 minutes), and provide the following information:

(1) A general description of the issue (who, what, when, where, why, how)

(2) A summary of the opposing or different views on the issue … how do different political parties, interest groups, etc. line up on the issue?

(3) A brief discussion of ideas and principles from the textbooks or from our class discussions that relate to the issue.

(4) Your opinion on the issue – if you were the Supreme Lawmaker, how would you decide the issue?

(5) The reasons for your opinion.

You are free to add other information as well. The general idea is to share with the class what you’ve discovered about the issue, and your opinions on the issue. You should strive to make your presentation interesting, informative, and clear. Creativity is encouraged.

Along with the presentation, you will need to provide a written list of the sources you used, and, for each, an evaluation of whether you thought the source presented the issue in a neutral or biased manner, and why you came to that conclusion. Internet citations should follow the Columbia Guide to Online Style, available at:

http://www.columbia.edu/cu/cup/cgos2006/basic.html.

The presentation will be graded based upon how well it conveys information about the issue in a clear, informative mannner.

RESEARCH HINTS

An excellent resource site that aggregates news stories by issue, and provides links to both on-line media and blogs covering that issue, is http://www.memeorandum.com/. It’s a good place to start for links. A site with a lot of links to opinion pieces is http://www.realclearpolitics.com. You can also find lists of “liberal/left” and “conservative/right” blogs at http://politics.blogniscient.com/.

There are a number of good “traditional media” sites on line, including

The New York Times
The Washington Post
The Economist (an excellent English magazine; unfortunately many of the articles are pay-per view, but some are free)
The Wall Street Journal Opinion Journal

The National Review Online (conservative)

The Nation (liberal)

The local paper (the Press Democrat) has excellent local coverage, and the Sacramento Bee has good coverage of state politics.

I also encourage you to be creative and do internet searches to find your own sites … there are a multitude of them easily locatable with a Google or Yahoo search.

Course Syllabus and Schedule

Professor Steven S. Shupe
Office Hours: TBD
Email: steven.shupe@gmail.com
Phone: 707.292.3281
Class Meets: Tues & Thurs, 5:25 p.m. – 6:40 p.m., Stevenson 1002
Course Web Site: http://www.pols200.blogspot.com/

Introduction and Objectives

This is a required course. Why? Because decisions resulting from the political process constantly affect your life. The amount of tuition you pay, the speed you can drive on the highway, the amount of chemicals allowed in your drinking water, whether you can download music from the Internet for free, your right to freely express your beliefs, whether you will be drafted and sent to fight in a war – all of these result from decisions made by the political system. This course is designed to give you an overview of how those decisions get made, and to give you insight into why your participation in the political system is important.

We will study the various institutional actors in the political system. We will study the fundamental principles and rules upon which our system is based, as set forth in the Constitution. We will learn about the formal and informal powers and procedures of the four main parts of government -- the legislature, the executive, the judiciary, and the bureaucracy. We will study the important roles played by non-governmental actors, such as political parties, the news media, and interest groups. We will investigate how people develop their political beliefs, and what causes people to participate in – or stay away from – the political process. We will also learn a little about American political history, and take a look at the workings of California state and local government and politics.

The scope of the subject matter we will be studying is far too large to be completely digested in one semester. In order to stress the most significant points, the class covers several major topics. We begin by examining the fundamental concepts and principles underlying our constitutional system. Next, we will study the constitutional limitations on power of the government, and individual civil rights, before turning to an examination of how political socialization occurs and the role of political parties, interest groups, the media, and public opinion. We will then spend time studying the peculiarities of California politics. A description of the workings of the executive and legislative branches follows, and we conclude with an examination of several national, state, and local policy issues.

Course Requirements

In order to understand and critique our political system, you must first know and understand the institutional actors, rules, and procedures that guide this system. This means that you must read all the course material. You should read the material before the class on the material, as this will make the classes more productive and allow you to ask any questions. You will also find it helpful to remain up-to-date on events in national, state, and local politics.

We will have four quizzes plus the final exam, which will be cumulative. The quizzes will be multiple choice and true/false, while the final exam will be a combination of those plus short answer questions. You will also write one paper and give one oral class presentation on a current political issue or controversy. The value of each of these to your final grade is given below.

Assignment Percentage of Final Grade

4 Quizzes (10% each): 30% of final grade
1 Paper (4-6 pages): 15% of final grade
1 Oral Presentation (3-5 minutes): 10% of final grade
Class Participation/Attendance : 15% of final grade
Final Exam : 30% of final grade

Please attend class and contribute to class discussions. I hope to make the classroom presentations and discussions interesting. Questions are always welcome. As an added incentive to attend class, there will be material discussed in class that will be on the quizzes/exams that is not in the textbooks or assigned reading materials.

Cheating or plagiarism will not be tolerated. I expect all of you to be familiar with SSU’s policies on cheating and plagiarism, which you can find on the SSU website at http://www.sonoma.edu/uaffairs/policies/cheatingpolicy.htm.

There are no make-up quizzes, exams, or extra credit assignments, and no late papers will be accepted. Generally, if you miss a quiz or are absent when you are scheduled to give a presentation, there will be no make-up. If you are going to miss a class for some unforeseen, legitimate reason, you should contact me in advance. I will be flexible about accounting for unforeseen circumstances requiring an absence from class.

Administrative Matters

The best way to get in touch with me is via e-mail, at steven.shupe@gmail.com. I check e-mail daily and will usually be able to respond to you within a day or so. You should also feel free arrange an appointment during office hours.

I have set up a website for this class, http://pols200.blogspot.com. Class materials, supplemental materials, and links will be posted on the site.

Required Texts (available at the SSU Bookstore)

1. Patterson, Thomas E. 2006. A Concise Introduction to American Politics. Sixth Edition. McGraw Hill.

2. Gerston, Larry N. and Christensen, Terry. California Politics and Government – A Practical Approach. Eighth Edition.

Supplementary Readings

You should read newspapers and magazines that report on political and economic issues. In particular, you might consider The New York Times, The Washington Post, The Economist (an excellent English magazine; unfortunately many of the articles are pay-per view, but some are free), The Wall Street Journal Opinion Journal, The National Review Online (conservative), or The Nation (liberal).

The local paper (the Press Democrat) has excellent local coverage, and the Sacramento Bee has good coverage of state politics.


My Philosophy on Grades, Effort, and Responsibility

Every student should be able to do well in this course by putting sufficient work and effort into the class. As university students, I expect each of you to be responsible and diligent: Read the assigned texts and readings ahead of time, attend and participate in class, treat me and your classmates with respect, and take the class seriously.

The Course Schedule is:

(Chapter references are to the Patterson text unless noted; quizzes will be held at the beginning of class on Thursday)

August 22/24: Overview and Core Principles (Chapter 1)

August 29/31: Core Principles and Federalism (Chapters 2 & 3)
[Class Presentation Group 1]

September 5/7: The Judicial Power; Civil Liberties (Chapter 14, Gerston Ch. 6) [Quiz 1]

September 12/14: Civil Liberties (Chapter 4)
[Class Presentation Group 2]

September 19/21: Civil Liberties and Equal Protection (Chapters 4 & 5)
[Class Presentation Group 3]

September 26/28: Political Socialization, Participation (Chapters 6 & 7)[Quiz 2]

October 3/5: Political Parties and Interest Groups (Chapters 8 & 9)
[Class Presentation Group 4]

October 10/12: The Media (Chapter 10)
[Class Presentation Group 5]

October 17/19: Intro to California Politics (Gerston, Chapters 1-4)[Quiz 3]

Oct 31/Nov 1: Legislative Power (Chapter 11, Gerston Ch. 5)
[Class Presentation Group 6]

November 7/9: The Legislative Power (Chapter 11, Gerston Ch. 5)
[Class Presentation Group 7]

November 14/16 The Executive Power (Chapter 12, Gerston Ch. 7)[Quiz 4]

November 21: The Bureaucracy (Chapter 13, Gerston Ch. ?])
[Class Presentation Group 8]

November 28/30: California Local Government and Budgetary Policy (Gerston Chapters 8 & 9)[Paper Due November 30]

December 5/7: National Policy Issues Overview (Chapters 15 – 17)
[Class Participation Group 9]

Week of Dec. 11: Final Exam